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Thursday, March 26, 2009

SEBaseball Regional Projections: Ohio State Hosting & #1 Seed

Yes there is still two months left before the committee selects participants to the 2009 NCAA Baseball Tournament, but its always good when you see things like this, regardless of the stage in the season.

Mark Etheridge who does a great job covering baseball in the southeastern portion of the country will do weekly NCAA field projections, with who would make the field of 64 if the season ended today, regional host and sites, and national seeds.

As of now Etheridge sees Ohio State hosting a Regional and being the #1 seed in the Regional. Also in the Columbus Regional would be Kentucky as the #2 seed from the SEC via at-large birth, Kent State as the #3 via an auto bid from the MAC, and Xavier as the #4 as the auto bid from the A-10.

Ohio State is currently being viewed favorably off the strength of its 18-3 record which has produced an RPI of 16 according to Boyd's World. The Bucks have a chance to solidify its RPI and national rankings with a successful two weeks as Penn State has an RPI of 113, non-conference Xavier 57, and next weekend Big Ten opponent Minnesota sits at 20.

Ohio State has not hosted a Regional since 2003, and if the Bucks take care of the chances in front of them, the schedule is shaping out to end the drought.

SEBaseball's Regional Projection

Boyd's World RPI

7 comments:

Charlie said...

Being bracketed with the overall #1 seed doesn't make the Buckeyes the overall #16 seed. The NCAA does not seed the teams 1-16, although they talked about doing that a couple of years ago. Only the top 8 seeds are in order, the rest of the 1s aren't really seeded 9-16. The regionals are grouped geographically with each other...so you have OSU and Arkansas, Georgia Tech and Georgia, etc. There is only 1 North region in his projections, so the Buckeyes get grouped with a West team.

Chris Webb said...

Thank you, I'll edit that and my mistake.

I know that only 1-8 are seeded, but I misinterpeted a reading about super regionals and bracketing. Thought the overall number one was always bracketed with the lowest #1.

Thanks for the correction.

4 of the last 6 said...

uhhh .... kinda fun to talk about; but any thoughts out there about something more imminent --- like the start of the Big 10 season? Yes I know we were 18-3 against teams that most quality programs wouldn't even consider scheduling (and if we are going to trumpet beating Miami .... I'll see that call and raise you a lose against Rollins). Nice RPI ... currently ... but I'm thinking more about the fact that the last few years winning the regular season Big 10 title was lost to us fairly early despite .400 batting averages and plenty of wins vs. teams like we faced this year. We seem to always be scrambling to make up ground because we are losing to teams that will have season ending RPIs that are astronomical. Can someone out there allay that concern for me?

Chris Webb said...

I'm just relaying whatever I come across on the internet. I just got the PSU release and will have that up shortly.

4of6,

How many times have we gone into Big Ten play with anything close to an 18-3 record? Believe last year we where 13-8? The year before like 14-4?

I'm not expecting us to have an RPI in the top 30 throughout the year, but it will be respectable enough to garner an at-large if the tournament is not won. That has been stated by a few people who cover baseball nationally and not something I dreamt up.

This is a new year, we have not had a reason to be concerned for this year yet. Maybe SP after Wimmers, but Wolo is coming around and has shown he can handle Big Ten pitching. Armstrong has been so-so, but we clearly have shown we can produce enough runs to win most slugfests.

That hopefully is a difference in this year than last that you can see. You yourself have stated many times last season that the team was young. Is it too much to expect from them with another year of collegiate lifting and conditioning that the power throughout the team has increased? I believe our batting average is the same, but we've already hit more home runs this year than all of 2008 and 2007. Its one thing to hit .314 as a time and move base to base, but to hit .320+ with power is another.

It seems as if you never want to consider the possibility of OSU doing well throughout the season and solely rely on winning the tournament. Granted your name does come from tournament success which is now 4 of the last 7, but for a program that hasn't won a conference crown since 2001, why not strive for that?

For the record what teams have we played that most quality teams won't? It might surprise you as to who has played who.

I know Miami played UMBC Pitt, and Rhode Island. Minnesota plays North Dakota State twice. SIU-Edwardsville is on Purdue's, Illinois', and Mizzou's schedule. Army beat Illinois. BC, Illinois, New Mexico State have beat up Hartford just as we did, barely. Michigan and Witcha State play Central Mich. Really only Northeastern is a team we were rare in showing up on their schedule.

Everyone loves to knock the schedule we play, but we're no different than any other northern school and we play the cards we're dealt.

4 of the last 6 said...

Chris ... you are right on several points. Thanks, for Bucking (sorry ... but I couldn't resist) me up. Also, I believe that Michigan has fallen off quite a bit talent-wise so I don't think we need to worry about them running off with it this year. Also I believe (and apparently so does BT based on what he's been saying) that Indiana is going to be much better and we don't have to play them. As for my sign on I'd try to go in and change it to 4 of 7 but I'm so technically inept that I'd probably crash the site trying to do so! I'll tell you what ... if they win it this year maybe I'll muster up the courage to go in and change it to 5 of 8!!!

Chris Webb said...

No don't change the login. It was/is orginial and we all love it. I was just giving you a hard time.

In the end you are right, the Big Ten tourney is the ONLY SURE way to get into the NCAA tourney.

To me just relying on those 4 or so games leaves me feeling empty, it doesn't really feel or show you were the "best" Big Ten team to me.

I just like to dream and have goals of winning the conference then whatever happens in the tourney happens. I know Illinois in 2005 won the league and was shut out of the NCAA, but we can't let that outlier negate the overwhelming support that when OSU wins the Big Ten or 40 games they're a lock.

As far as Indiana.. ehhh I wasn't too high on them coming into the year. They had Bashore coming but on the mound but that was it. Then he is winless on the year? People keep overlooking them but PSU to me is dangerous.

I guess I could do a brief Big Ten intro?

4 of the last 6 said...

I listened to the Bucks vs. Hoosiers and this Monar kid pitched a hell of game. According to the announcer he's ben inconsistant (freshman) but has been great lately and has tremendous potential. I think Baashore will come around. Phegley and their 1b (name?) are very dangerous at the plate and Phegley is very good defensively. It looks like Illinois is coming together nicely and Minn has improved; but I don't think that they are back to their prior standard yet. Yes PSU scares me. Two quality starters and Wine (geez it seems like he's been there forever!!) is very good