NCAA Tournament Outlook

Its been a while since the Bucks have gone into May with sights on the NCAA Tournament, without having to rely on the Big Ten's auto bid. Its May 1st and the Bucks sit with an RPI of 28. Nice.

A quick glance across the college baseball world with this weeks Regional Projections should help us know whats realistic for the Bucks, whats to worry about, what is to be excited about.

Starting off we have Aaron Fitt of Baseball America giving his hand at the Field of 64. This is BA's first projection of the season and they do a good job in explaing their reasonings.

As you can see Baseball America has Ohio State as a #2 seed hosting in the Columbus Regional. Projected seeds in the regional include #1 Texas A&M, a team we are very familiar with having traveled to the College Station Regional in 2007 and opening 2008 in College Station. The #3 being Kent State, another familiar program. The #4 and rounding the regional out is fellow Ohio school Wright State.

Baseball America's take on the Bucks and the Big Ten...

"The Big Ten is tough to figure out. We'll continue to bank on Indiana's talent carrying it through the conference tournament, particularly now that its weekend rotation is starting to come on strong. Minnesota has a strong at-large resume and should finish as a No. 2 seed. Illinois has better wins right now than Ohio State and gets to host the Buckeyes for a huge three-game series in two weeks. If the Illini win that series, they're likely to earn a bid over the Buckeyes, who will see their impressive RPI (29) drop over the final three weeks thanks to series against Northwestern and Purdue. But if Ohio State gets in, it seems like a strong bet to host, thanks to geographic variety and good facilities. Texas A&M earns the third No. 1 seed out of the loaded Big 12 conference and gets shipped to Columbus, as TCU beats out the Aggies for the third host site in the Lone Star State. But that's only if the Horned Frogs can finish strong and win the MWC regular-season and conference titles. Otherwise, their poor record against Big 12 teams will be their undoing when host sites are awarded."

Personally I would take Baseball America's projection in a heartbeat. TAMU is a team that was very hyped going into the year as national champion favorites but I felt they were a bit overratted, and the Bucks with the recent history should not be afraid of the Aggies. Also its at home, a huge advantage obviously. Kent State as a #3 seed presents a difficult task, but with the experience of already playing them and the fact their top two pitchers have been inconsistant, I'd take that in game 1. With Wright State here, it gives the regional 3 Ohio teams which would do a ton for attendence and the atmosphere.

Next is SEBaseball.com and their projection.

They have Ohio State as a #2 seed in the Austin Regional. Included in the regional is host Texas as a #1 and overall #8 seed. The 3-seed is Texas State, and Manhattan is the predicted 4-seed. This projection doesn't do much for me. Texas is a formidable opponent, much more than TAMU, and Texas State is putting together a solid season out of the Southland Conference.

The Big Ten in this projection has three teams in NCAA Regional play with Illinois as a #3 seed gaining an at-large berth and Minnesota as a #2 seed as well gaining an at-large berth. Ohio State is the projecte auto-bid recipient but they are in solid shape to receive an at-large if needed. Three teams in the top 50-RPI is huge for the Big Ten, especially if an Indiana or Michigan wins the conference's auto-bid, 4, yes 4 Big Ten teams could be playing in a regional.

Also on the Rivals network is Yahoo College Baseball and their projection.

Ohio State is the Big Ten's auto-bid receiver here as well and placed in the Oxford Regional as a #2 seed. Host Ole Miss is the #1, MTSU is the #3 seed with Eastern Illinois as the #4 seed. This is probably the "easiest" regional path for the Bucks. Ole Miss is solid but not great. They do have a hostile environment which would probably be the Bucks biggest opponent. Eastern Illinois is putting together an incredible season in the Ohio Valley. They have had a solid non-conference schedule with teams like Indiana, Illinois, Oklahoma, Louisville, and Missouri on it. The Panthers fell to L'Ville and Mizzouri but did knock off the Hoosiers, Sooners, and Illini. Definitely not a team to sleep on.

Status quo with the Big Ten. Minny and Illinois receiving at large bid with a #2 seed and #3 seed respectively.

The last projection is courtesy Colin Weber and the guys at The College Baseball Blog.

The Bucks show their resume has left them in solid standing as they receive another #2 seed. This time in the Baton Rouge Regional with host LSU receiving the #1 seed, Missouri the #3 seed, and Jacksonville the #4 seed. This is not a regional I want any part of. LSU is a solid team top to bottom that can hit for power, run, pitch, and field. Missouri has one of the nations's pitchers in Kyle Gibson. Oh and Baton Rouge doesn't take too kindly to visitors. I'll pass.

The Big Ten continues its good showing with Minnesota, Illinois, and Ohio State all projected to be in a regional again.


Oh and surprise surprise ESPN is showing some committement to college baseball before the CWS. Wasn't expecting this but did stumble across it. Here's ESPN's take.

There is one traveling No. 1 seed this week; TCU gets the boot as the committee is unlikely to put four regionals in Texas (along with three in bordering states). That keeps Ohio State as a host as a No. 2 seed. Baylor, Coastal Carolina and TCU make way for a fourth SEC host as well as spots for the top two teams in the Big 12: Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma. The final slot comes down to a slugfest between Clemson, Florida State and Virginia. Florida State has the best conference standing, while Clemson had a great weekend against Georgia Tech. Virginia got only one game in against either of them due to scheduling (they miss Clemson this year) and weather (two cancellations against Florida State). For now, the bid goes to Virginia (but not with much confidence).

For those keeping track at home, the other eight hosts (in alphabetical order): Cal State Fullerton, Georgia, Miami, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Virginia.

ESPN has the Bucks hosting as a #2 seed with TCU as the #1, Vandy as the #3 and Kent State as the #4. Its always great to be at home, but thats a pretty tough regional 1-4.

ESPN only has Minnesota joing the Bucks in a regional and that is as a #3 seed. Illinois isn't even in the next 10 to be considered.


The last website to chew on is Warren Nolan's Nitty Gritty report. Just shows how different teams stack up against each other, showing SOS, and various W-L breakdowns, ranked by RPI.

Fresno State Wins Title

Wow! What an incredible run by the Fresno State Bulldogs. Wednesday night they celebrated as champions of the college baseball world after beating Georgia 6-1. We already know they were the lowest seed to ever win an NCAA championship. Fresno had the most losses of any team to win the title.

The-Ozone.net has some great discussion about the CWS on their forum. Some are a little misinformed, but thankfully people are there to help set the record straight.

Rightfielder Steve Detwiler had a career night in the championship game going 4-4, driving in all six Fresno State runs and setting College World Series records for the most home runs in a championship game with two, most home runs in a championship series with three, most RBIs in a championship game with six, most RBIs in a championship series with nine, most extra base hits in a championship game, most bases in a championship game with 11 and in a fitting end to the game he caught the final out for Fresno State.

And yet it was third baseman Tommy Mendonca that was named the Most Outstanding Player. He hit four home runs and had 11 RBIs and also made a number of spectacular plays in the field.

The last seven NCAAA champions have been west of the Mississippi River: Texas 2002 and 2005, Rice in 2003, Cal State Fullerton in 2004, Oregon State in 2006 and 2007 and Fresno State in 2008.

For Fresno, it was Underdogs to Wonderdogs, indeed.

With that, it is time to start looking toward 2009. Go Bucks!

Anyone Else Tired of Andy Lopez?

I was already tired of Arizona baseball coach Andy Lopez. No one has been more vocal or whined more about the new uniform start date than he has. While it is too bad his student-athletes have to suffer through road trips and watch their academics slide, what about those student-athletes on teams in the Northeast and Midwest who spend the last week of February and all of March traveling to the South?

There are two sides of the issue and thankfully Mark Schlabach eventually gets to that in his article, which is clearly slanted to the southern teams. If Arizona State can find a way to schedule so many games early without traveling, how is it that Arizona can't? In the past I have been somewhat sympathetic toward Arizona and Arizona State since there are not many schools in close proximity, but maybe its time to add a tournament or two in February and March and play four games in a weekend so you don't have to play as many midweek road games.

I wish ESPN.com and the national media would quit quoting coach Lopez.

It would be great to see the season pushed back a couple of weeks more as Wichita State coach Gene Stephenson suggests.

"The season still needs to be moved back further in the year," Stephenson told Schlabach for the article. "We're still playing half of our season when basketball is going on. We're never going to become a major sport if you're playing half your season or more when basketball is the most popular."

Of course, I did sit in 95-degree heat and nearly as high rate of humidity last Saturday in Houston to watch Rice beat Texas A&M. But it sure beat sitting in 30-degree temps in April watching the Buckeyes and Michigan play in Ann Arbor a few years ago.

Another ESPN.com article.

College Baseball Growing in Popularity

College baseball only seems to be growing in popularity across the country. ESPN.com had a writeup from June 1 saying "College Baseball" was the most searched entry on its Web site during the month of May.

I just wanted to share that with you and the Columbus Dispatch. I sure wish that one day they would get a clue and start giving college baseball the coverage it deserves.

Super Regionals Set

This is the 10th year of the Super Regional Round and for the sixth year no Big Ten teams advanced out of regional play. Michigan, the Big Ten tournament and regular season champion, did not make it to the regional championship at its own regional. Top-seeded Arizona swept through the regional dispatching of Kentucky in the final. Arizona travels to Miami this weekend with the winner of the three-game series advancing to Omaha.

Michigan played at Oregon State last season in its only Super Regional appearance. Penn State reached the Supers in 2000, losing at Texas. Ohio State has played in and served as host of two Super Regionals: first in 1999, losing to Cal State Fullerton and again in 2003, losing to (Southwest) Missouri State.

The Wolverines were head and shoulders above the rest of the Big Ten in 2008 and went 1-2 in regional play on its home field. I would have liked to have seen a healthy Michigan team do battle against Kentucky and Arizona. The outcome didn't speak to well for the rest of the league.

Let the readers of The Buckeye Nine know what you think about the Super Regional matchups. I'm going to try to head to Houston this weekend to catch at least one game between Rice and Texas A&M.

NCAA Field Announced

Only one Big Ten team got in the NCAA tournament as expected. Michigan is in and will be the No. 2 regional seed and will welcome Arizona as the top seed as well as Kentucky and Eastern Michigan to Ray Fisher Stadium this weekend. The Wovlerines will play Kentucky in their first game on Saturday. Arizona meets Eastern Michigan. The winner of the four-team, double-elimination regional will face the winner of the Coral Gables Regional (Miami/Fla., Missouri, Mississippi and Bethune Cookman).

NCAA Tournament Bracket

I know there was a lot of discussion by Purdue fans thinking they would get in, but you need a much better resume to make it in. The program has been making great strides the last few seasons but is not quite there yet. It would have been great to have seen them surprise Michigan this past weekend so the Big Ten could have gotten two teams in. Instead they go from three teams in last season to just one.

Michigan is the first Big Ten team to play host to a regional since Ohio State hosted in 2001. I wonder if they can get past Arizona and likely Miami. That is a tall order.

I was disappointed that two-time defending champion Oregon State did not get in. Of course a 28-24 overall record won't help much, but the still managed some impressive wins. It is the first champion to in the tournament since Georgia did not make the 1991 field. I was upset to see Arkansas get the nod. Ohio State had them on the ropes in College Station and I wasn't overly impressed with them. I have always said you should have to play in your conference tournament to qualify for the NCAA tournament. Arkansas did not qualify for the SEC tournament.

I am always glad to see Rice make the field. I spent the early part of my career in sports information working with the Owls and have great respect for their coach Wayne Graham. They go in as the No. 6 national seed. I am glad their 2-and-out effort in the Conference USA tournament didn't cost them a national seed. Clemson, another one of my former schools, did not get in this year for the first time in a very long time.

Eight teams from Texas qualified for the tournament. Rice and Texas A&M will play host to regionals. Hopefully I can make it out to see a few college games this weekend.

I'd love to hear what you have to say about the NCAA tournament selections, how you think Michigan will do and which team you think will win the championship.